On Tuesday, September 11 I was the keynote speaker for a conference on Modeling and Simulation held at Virginia Beach, Virginia. My topic was the cognitive dimension of modeling and simulation. The topic had two purposes – to describe the cognitive functions of the people using the models and simulations, and also to provide guidance […]
For years I have wondered about the disproportionate influence of the final events in sporting contests. If a basketball player makes a shot in the final seconds to turn a loss into a win, the newspaper accounts will typically describe how that shot won the game. Similarly, if the shot misses, then the newspapers will […]
A recent report by an independent commission in the U.S. recommended purging the 26,000-member Iraqi national police to purge it of corrupt officers and Shiite militants. The report decries the sectarianism of the current police force which can only be eliminated by scrapping the current force – basically, starting over. I have been thinking about […]
Some of the comments on my first blog raised questions about expertise. Patrick Lambe wondered if it was possible for people in the KM community to develop expertise. I responded in a comment to Patrick but I think it may be useful to examine what criteria we use to assess experts. Also, Wayne Zambergen asked […]
Every month or two I host an informal brown bag lunch about cognitive systems engineering – a design approach aimed at improving cognitive work by guiding the system features by the cognitive processes they need to support. Yesterday (Weds., September 5) we met to talk about what might go into a workshop on CSE. Janet […]
I haven’t always been enthusiastic about the proliferation of so-called decision biases. One of my early articles was entitled “Do decision biases explain too much?” I examined the Vincennes shootdown incident (in which a U.S. Aegis cruiser mistakenly shot down a commercial airplane flying from Bandar Abbas airport in Iran to Dubai). The captain was […]
A friend of mine, Steve Fiore at the University of Central Florida, tried to ruffle my feathers by sending me a review of a book by Ian Ayres Super Crunchers. The takeaway message from Ayres’ book is that statistical analyses are more trustworthy than expert opinion. Ayres is an econometrician and law professor at Yale, […]
it was with a little nervousness that I accepted the offer to be the inaugural Guest Blogger on the Cognitive Edge website. It came at a time of a busy travel/work schedule along with family demands (a 2-month old son, 6 yr old daughter on summer vacation, and the start of a house building project). […]
I have spent most of my career trying to understand what makes experts in their field so good. Looking at fireground commanders making life-and-death decisions in seconds, nurses noticing that babies are developing infection – even before the blood work comes back positive, pilots inventing ways to control “uncontrollable” airplanes, military commanders immediately spotting the […]
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