Enhancing Decision Making with the Cynefin Framework and Applying Complexity Science Informed Strategy with Estuarine Mapping

The Cynefin Framework and Estuarine Mapping (Estuarine Framework); Frequently mentioned, but what are they and how are they related?

Most people who will come across this blog will probably be familiar to some extent with the Cynefin Framework, and increasingly more people are becoming familiar with Estuarine Mapping, but how are they related, what is different about them and how to integrate them?

Effective decision making is crucial for the success of any organisation. So is strategic thinking, which translates to on-the-ground, in-the-moment tactics. In today’s complex and rapidly changing environment, traditional models often fall short. The Cynefin Framework and Estuarine Mapping offer alternative approaches to understanding and navigating complex environments, each with a distinct focus and application.

Understanding the Cynefin Framework

In its simplest form, The Cynefin Framework is a decision-making tool that helps decision makers establish in what kind of system(s) a problem or decision exists within, in order to know how to respond accordingly.
Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, and Confused/Aporetic. Each domain requires a different approach to decision-making:

1. Clear: Cause and effect relationships are well understood. Best practices and standard operating procedures are effective.
2. Complicated: Multiple right answers exist. Expert analysis and good practices are necessary.
3. Complex: Patterns emerge through action and connections and are often clearer in hindsight. This domain requires probing, sensing, and responding.
4. Chaotic: Immediate action is needed to establish patterns, connections or order. Novel practices apply.
5. Confused/Aporetic: The situation is unclear, requiring more information to determine the  domain, or deliberate confusion in order to aid innovation.

The primary function of the Cynefin Framework is to establish which type of system or context you are dealing with and make decisions accordingly. Subsequent decisions will include elements such as what kinds of processes to follow, what kind of tools to use or actions to take, and a recognition of the dynamics that exist between the domains and navigating between them. This involves understanding whether the situation is clear, complicated, complex, or chaotic (or which parts of the situation are clear, complicated, etc…), and then applying the relevant decision-making strategy.

When introducing the Cynefin framework, I like to use it for identifying what I call “Domain dissonance” – when we are acting in one type of system, but according to the principles of another.  It can become a very useful individual and team exercise to reflect on whether you may be making any decision or acting in an environment in a way that is dissonant to the actual issue at hand.

Compared to Estuarine Mapping…

While the Cynefin Framework focuses on identifying the nature of the system to inform decision making, Estuarine Mapping is specifically geared towards applied complexity theory in order to create a strategy or take action in a complex system.

Estuarine Mapping:

Estuarine Mapping is a way of understanding a system or context and then initiating micro changes that reduce the risk and cost of taking action, to create the best environment for solutions to emerge. Just as with the movement of the tide in an estuary, complex problems in a system are non-linear, multi-directional, and have multiple effects. They can’t be solved by tracing an issue back to its root cause, as with simple problems. Instead, we need to adjust how the system is set up to increase the chances of good results and reduce the chances of bad ones.

Estuarine Mapping identifies the things that shape and influence a system. Once these are identified, they are plotted onto a chart, mapping them against how much energy and time they would each take to change. This chart of energy against time is called the Estuarine Framework. This allows us to see what can be reasonably changed and allows for a portfolio of micro-interventions to be designed in order to stabilise, change, or monitor, where appropriate.

If we make micro-interventions at this level, they can have surprisingly significant effects on a grand scale. In fact, they can even affect whether the problem exists in the way we think it does. The result is a clear, physical picture of where we are, what we want to change, and what we realistically can’t change, with a spectrum of actions that we could take to enable the strategy to become reality.

Estuarine mapping is about working with the substrate of a system rather than attempting to change people or tackling individual problems head-on in a direct, linear fashion. The Estuarine Mapping process is conducted to generate a portfolio of actions. The portfolio of actions can each be mapped back onto the Cynefin Framework to categorise the action types in order to develop and roll them out according to the domain they occupy and the relevant change management process for that domain.

In Summary…

When starting with the Cynefin Framework and establishing that a context or issue falls within the Complex Domain, Estuarine Mapping of said context or issue can provide a practical and structured approach for developing both a strategic and operational response through establishing a map of the substrate of the system, developing a range of interventions; these can then be mapped back to the Cynefin Framework and delivered and managed accordingly to the domain they relate to. 

Utilising the Cynefin Framework and Estuarine Mapping enhances decision-making and strategic application by providing structured approaches to handle different types of challenges. The Cynefin Framework aids in identifying the nature of the system and determining decision-making strategies, while Estuarine Mapping focuses on applying these decision-making strategies in practical ways, with applied complexity theory baked into the method. Together, these frameworks help organisations improve their agility, decision-making processes, and strategic resilience.

Banner Image Credit: Dan Meyers, Unsplash

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