I am settled into Durham University for three days, with a small group of very interesting people discussing the subject of extreme events. Our guest blogger Max is one of those (if you have not checked out his delightful combination of wit with serious reflection do so) and there are other old friends. Bill McKelvey of UCLA, Peter Allen of Cranfield and others all brought to together by Pierpaolo Andriani of Durham. So expect three days of reflections and comments on this most important of subjects.
Day one is a series of 15 minute presentations (well most of us went to 20 or more) on our research interests. A fair number of the participants are dealing with mathematical models of various types. There is an extensive and ongoing discussions about power laws from most delegates. Those of us from the social sciences range from my use of narrative and cognitive approaches to complexity to a very traditionally minded approach based on decision analysis and scenario planning from George Wright of the business school in Durham I am afraid to say that his presentation represented everything I dislike about management “science” in business schools.
There is an important divide in the group between those who are trying to create models that will predict extreme events, and those of us talking about anticipatory awareness. Now the former group are resisting the word prediction, but they are in the main trying to create statistical and other models that explain past events and by implication this implies some predictive capability. There is also some debate about the relative accuracy of Joe Public as opposed to experts.
OK, back to the debate (its getting interesting and frustrating in equal measure) more tomorrow.
Cognitive Edge Ltd. & Cognitive Edge Pte. trading as The Cynefin Company and The Cynefin Centre.
© COPYRIGHT 2023
Some years back, Ken Livingstone, the Mayor of London introduced congestion charging for road vehicles ...
Pragmatist like Charles Peirce and William James to knowledge to be beliefs that had cash ...
Leave a Reply